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- Playing With Ace Huggers

cards plus if you hold a hand like K J your opponent s ability to make a Straight and perhaps a Flush is diminished because you have some of his outs I placed an emphasis on Straights and Flushes here because those are the hands that can really mess up your great hand like Two Pair a King high Straight or a King high Flush When you know your opponent is an Ace hugger and s he has limped into the pot as they so often do how to play your hand becomes more a case of pot odds than anything else Let me give you an example using KsQc versus Ad8d which is about as bad as it can get Your probability is exactly 40 and your opponent s probability is 60 if we ignore ties see how much this is like Case 2 With a 40 probability preflop it makes sense for you to get involved with the hand if the pot is giving you 1 5 to 1 or better odds So if the blinds are 25 50 and the hugger limps along with two other players the pot will be 225 when it gets to you Should you limp in the pot is offering over 4 to 1 odds which is great but you won t have any idea on where you stand with the hand If you make a standard 3x BB raise of 150 you ll be getting drumroll please exactly 1 5 to 1 odds The Ace hugger will likely call they re known as huggers for a reason and perhaps some of the other limpers will also call so in this case 1 5 to 1 odds are the minimum but of course with others in the pot you re probabilty will likely be lower Should someone other than the hugger reraise you ll probably have to fold but before you do that ask yourself if that player was trapping by limping with a pocket pair in which case you re probably toast or if you will still have decent pot odds say 2 to 1 to call A lot of players will limp in Early Position with middle and low pairs like 88 to 22 but when someone raises it seems to bring out the gambler in them so they ll frequently reraise Since I m assuming you re going to raise here with only a decent hand to imagine you still have a probability of over 33 isn t unrealistic so if the pot odds are still good call Remember even against a small pair 22 to 88 a hand like K Q is still at 40 probability preflop The flop will reveal a lot to you If the hugger is still in and no Ace comes on the flop but one of your cards pairs you probably have the best hand However if an Ace does fall and you don t have Two Pair it s probably time to

Original URL path: http://www.pokerparty.ro/holdem-nolimit-ace.html (2016-05-02)

Open archived version from archive - Bluff on the River

in the long run but the optimist has more fun on the trip As an optimist I naturally think my opponent does not have me beat but the mathematician in me says I have to prove that to one degree or another before I can place a wager on my hand It s a process I covered somewhat in Lesson 21 Sniffing Out a Set which you should review because you may well be up against a set on the river But more likely an opponent who s bluffing will have a busted Straight or Flush draw and they re 90 sure the only way they can win the pot is by leading into it on the river Are they bluffing if they have top pair with a lousy kicker 2nd pair 3rd pair or just Ace high Well of course that all depends upon what you re holding If you have top pair top kicker then they are bluffing and you ll hopefully pick them off by calling If they have a set and you haven t gotten away from the hand yet you re probably going to lose because they re not bluffing unless you made a Straight or Flush I m throwing out a lot of possibilities here which if taken too seriously can easily let you talk yourself into folding That must be avoided if you hope to become a winning player and to do that you have to make a realistic evaluation of the probability your opponent actually made the hand s he is betting Notice that I said the hand not a hand If a 9h hits the river and that s the 3rd heart on the board with no Straight possibilities a bet by your opponent is implying s he made a Flush much more than it means s he made a set of 9s or two pair although that certainly is possible and would generate a bet just like a made Flush If your opponent thinks the card helped you make a Flush I m going to assume s he would check absent holding the Ace high Flush If we take those three possibilities two pair a set of 9s or a Flush what are the probabilities of each A third suit on the river means a player who was holding two cards of the same suit in the hole just hit a 9 outer at best With me on this With two suited cards in the hole and two more of the same suit on the board there are 9 cards of that suit unseen assuming you don t have one yourself in which case there d be only 8 if you had two of them it would be Flush vs Flush and it s back to a guessing game unless you have the Ace Anyway if you don t have any cards of that suit there s a 21 chance your opponent made his Flush There were 9 cards of

Original URL path: http://www.pokerparty.ro/holdem-nolimit-bluff.html (2016-05-02)

Open archived version from archive - NLHE Practice Hands

act on each hand but that can sometimes work in your favor although I m worried about the fact that the Button is very close to being pot committed because he now has only 40 of his chips remaining The flop comes 7s 8s Qs I check and the Button goes all in for T2000 Question What cards does the Button have Answers Hand 1 The pot has about T2000 in it which is nearly 2 to 1 pot odds on my T1100 call but I m folding here because I think the BB has me beat and if he doesn t so what It s just too early to get into a coin flip unless I know I m one of the weakest players in the tournament in which case I probably have to gamble in order to win But in light of the re raise that I would have at least called which was followed by a player with another average stack who raised again by going all in I m all out When the cards were shown the BB had K K and the MP raiser who called lost with A Ko Hand 2 The BB called my bet on the flop which implies he had some kind of a hand but remember it cost him only T200 to get into a pot that was T750 my T300 bet the button s T300 the T50 SB and T100BB so he was getting over 3 to 1 pot odds which he might call with almost anything certainly A x Because I raised preflop it s easy to put me on a hand of Ace something which is probably why the button folded so what would compell the BB to call Obviously if he has an Ace he s trying to trap me or more likely is worried that his kicker is smaller than mine because he thinks I do have an Ace something like A K or A Q When he checked after me on the turn I felt he thought that I either had him beaten badly with Trips or had nothing I gave a small consideration to the fact that he may have called me with A 3 and now was boated but if that were the case I was just going to have to pay it off When the Q hit the river I finally had a hand Was it any good Well I had to find out so that s why I bet T500 not counting the fact I d be getting about 5 to 1 pot odds on it should he call But then he raised and I went into the tank Surprisingly I figured it out much quicker than it takes to read this My thought was that he raised for one of two reasons He had me beaten badly and was trying to extract a few more or he realized only a bluff could win at this point But it was

Original URL path: http://www.pokerparty.ro/holdem-nolimit-nhle.html (2016-05-02)

Open archived version from archive - Dominated Ace

under the umbrella of Excel For the Advantage Player Most people don t like the mathematical aspects of casino gaming as much as I do but by showing you how to use Excel most of the pain associated with the math will hopefully be eliminated Calculations like standard deviation variance combinatorial analysis and other mathematical functions are performed by Excel in literally the blink of an eye if you know how to program it correctly And that s what I ll show you here how to program Excel to give you the answers you seek For starters I thought it would be interesting to see just what the chances are that your hand of Ace whatever is dominated by another A x hand the x means any other card By dominated I mean that you and an opponent share the Ace but his kicker the second card in his hand may be higher than yours Of course if you already have an A x hand the probability that your opponent also has an A x hand is reduced because the deck contains only three Aces at that point instead of the usual four But it s still possible for him to have it and if you have any experience with the game at all you know players will hold on to their Aces with a death grip I wrote about that in Lesson 22 Playing With Ace Huggers and this lesson will supplement that by giving you some solid numbers as to the probability your hand is the best when comparing A x hands Knowing the probability that your A x hand is best is important at anytime but I think it s crucial to know this once you get to the point in a tournament where you re facing

Original URL path: http://www.pokerparty.ro/holdem-nolimit-dominatedace.html (2016-05-02)

Open archived version from archive - The King's Gambit

case hearts and another card of that suit come on the flop so you know you have a nut flush draw If all three flop cards are of your suit you probably won t make a lot of Unfortunately the odds of the Ah xh coming on the flop are pretty small Flopping two more cards of your suit is a 10 9 probability but for one of those cards to be the Ace the probability drops to just about 1 The odds of seeing the Ah come on the turn if it didn t come on the flop is 1 of 47 or 2 12 any heart on the turn is 11 of 47 or 23 4 which will give you a made flush but not necessarily the nut flush Assuming no hearts fell on the turn there are nine of them left in the deck when the river card is dealt Because we ve seen six cards to this point our two pocket cards the three cards on the flop and the turn card that means 46 cards remain to be played Nine of those are hearts if we haven t already made our flush so the odds of hitting the Ace of hearts on the river is 1 of 46 or 2 17 and the odds of hitting any heart is 9 of 46 or 19 56 The probabilities of making a flush on the turn or river might not look all that important but they give us the means to calculate the odds of a loss out something you don t see mentioned in most poker books A loss out or as one author who does talk about in his book calls it a dout comes into play here because while you d like to see just three more hearts come on the board if a fourth hits and your opponent is holding the Ace of hearts instead of the Ace of clubs s he now has the nut flush Let s say you made a flush on the turn which obviously places three hearts on the board If your Ace hugging opponent has the Ace of hearts we know there are eight hearts remaining but your opponent believes there are 10 left because s he cannot know what cards you hold From your opponent s point of view the odds of making a flush on the river are 10 of 46 or 21 74 but we know it s actually 8 of 46 or 17 39 A good average to use in the heat of battle is 20 which means your opponent must be getting pot odds of 4 to 1 for betting the draw to be a proper play Understand if s he bets 10 five times for 50 in total action and loses four of them the loss is 40 If the fifth hand wins 40 it s break even In a limit game the pot odds could easily be that high But

Original URL path: http://www.pokerparty.ro/holdem-nolimit-king.html (2016-05-02)

Open archived version from archive - The Big Stack Attack

s a good day Let s say you have 7 Big Blinds left are in early position and look down to see Kh 9c Let s also say that several of your opponents have been calling all in moves by other short stacked players so there s a reasonable chance you ll get called by at least two of them Let s further assume these callers aren t exactly playing junk hands so will give one 6 6 and the other A 8o A hand of K 9o against a hand of 6 6 has a probability of winning in the 44 area it s the old two overcards versus a pair race really not much different than A K versus 10 10 Against A 8 K 9o is a 60 40 underdog which ain t great but not terrible either But if both of your opponents call you the pot will be at least 21 Big Blinds which is a 2 to 1 potential return on your 7 unit bet Now let s talk some more math If the pot odds are 2 to 1 you must have a winning probability of 33 to justify the bet Well guess what If you compare a hand of K 90 against both 6 6 and A 8o it has a probability of winning in the area of 35 Sure your two opponents have a combined 65 probability of beating you so nothing has really changed other than the fact that you re getting proper pot odds to make the play But that opportunity to triple up makes it worthwhile Naturally if you miscalculate and only one of them calls you re a slight underdog or a fairly big underdog depending upon which one it is This is a desperation play plain and simple but I find I d rather do this than continue to struggle with a short stack while hoping for a premium hand to come along The big in most tournaments be they SnGs or MTTs come from the top three places so I ve given up on the idea of trying to sneak into the money and traded that for trying to win Believe me in time you ll think that way too If I get knocked out I move on to the next tournament it s kind of like reaching into your pocket for more if you suffer a big loss in a cash game so long as I play wisely the will eventually follow I used a more or less worst case example to show you this concept But now let me give you a somewhat better example Let s say you have 10 J suited and go all in with your 7 times the Big Blind bet If the same two players call you re actually a 52 48 favorite against 6 6 and only a 48 52 underdog versus A 8 offsuit That s mainly because J 10s has so many Straight and Flush

Original URL path: http://www.pokerparty.ro/holdem-nolimit-stack.html (2016-05-02)

Open archived version from archive - Late Position Plays

draw any conclusions about what types of players those in the Blinds are limp in a few times with a decent hand say Q 10o J 8s or better an above average hand to see how they react Of course you re not going to call an all in with those hands but you might want to call a raise just to establish the fact that you re not necessarily weak every time you limp If you subsequently win the hand at a showdown your limping credibility will go up and you ll likely be able to limp at will An added benefit is that they ll give your raises from the button more credibility because they saw you limp with a decent hand so you must be raising with something better even though that may not actually be the case The Power of Position It is commonly estimated that any hand increases its expected value by about 25 when played in position In other words a hand like 9 6o which has a probability of winning 39 against J 5s actually has a probability more like 50 if you get to bet last And if you re on the button you always get to act last after the flop regardless of how many players are in the hand If you raised preflop your opponents will often check to you after the flop and that allows you to make a continuation bet of at least half the pot which basically sends the message I was strong before the flop and I m still strong Whether or not they ll fold depends upon how the flop affected their hand of course but you should make such a bet anyway because it ll tell you where you re at in the hand If an opponent calls and you have nothing it s probably time to go into check mode If an opponent raises you it s time to consider folding unless you can reraise Anything but a fold by your opponent s is disappointing when you don t have a strong hand but at least your position has opened up some options and that s the real power of being on the Button In fact position is so important that I m going to recommend that you spend less time trying to steal the blinds and spend more time trying to buy the Button What I mean by this is to raise more from the Cutoff the seat to act immediately before the Button because you will accomplish two things First your raise will not appear to be a standard Button raise which implies looseness so it may have more credibility Secondly if you can get the Button to fold you will get to act last for the rest of the hand While I and many other authors recommend that hands played from the Cutoff be slightly stronger than hands played from the Button I think a lot of that has changed

Original URL path: http://www.pokerparty.ro/holdem-nolimit-late.html (2016-05-02)

Open archived version from archive - Short-Handed Play

all in EPR Early Position Raise MPR Middle Position Raise LPR Late positon Raise includes SB if you re BB 1 If all players limp in then raise with these hands from the SB or BB Copyright 2006 GameMaster OnLine Inc Permission to copy for personal use is granted As I mentioned earlier there aren t a lot of changes in this versus my regular Starting Hands matrix What have changed are the various position designations In a 6 handed game Early Position EP is defined as the UTG position the first to act preflop Middle Position MP is UTG 1 or the second to act preflop Late Position LP is the Cut Off and the Button Of course the Small Blind SB and the Big Blind BB remain the same both act last preflop but then act first after the flop which puts them in the least overall desirable positions All I have basically done is shift things over to the left a bit so that a play one might make from MP at a 9 or 10 player table is now an EP play at a 6 player table And while this matrix assumes 6 players at the table that will of course change as the tournament progresses This means you should continue making adjustments like that which is to play more hands as the number of opponents dwindles While there s no specific point at which you should start treating the LP plays as EP plays a lot will depend upon how tight or loose your opponents are I m usually playing from the LP column when there are three of us left At that point if I m not in the Blinds I m on the Button and have great position even though I must act first preflop But I m getting ahead of myself here let s go back to the matrix High pairs like A A through 10 10 are played in the same way which is probably no surprise In the pairs category the middle pairs of 9 9 to 5 5 gain in strength but remember that they re still not invincible even in a six handed game For the baby pairs 4 4 to 2 2 my strategy is to try and limp in with them just calling the Big Blind in EP and MP which won t always be possible if your opponents are over playing their hands by raising with almost any two cards If that happens you can see I recommend you fold the baby pairs to a raise but before you do that consider the pot odds If several players call the pot may be big enough for you to call as well The key number to remember in a case like that is 7 5 Why 7 5 Well those are the odds you will hit a third card thus making a set of Trips on the flop So if the pot is offering a 7

Original URL path: http://www.pokerparty.ro/holdem-nolimit-short.html (2016-05-02)

Open archived version from archive